Multiple forecasts predict U.S. mortgage rates will stay above 6 percent in 2025, a significant departure from pre-2022 levels. Industry experts anticipate continued pressure on borrowing costs for home purchases, although the precise trajectory remains uncertain.
Leading economists like Mark Fleming of First American anticipate a range between 6% and 6.5% for average 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. This outlook contrasts slightly with other projections. Bankrate forecasts a potential easing to 6.5% by year's end, while Realtor.com projects an average of 6.3% throughout 2025, with a slight decrease to 6.2% by the close of the year.
Different organizations offer varying predictions. The National Association of Realtors suggests an average of approximately 6%, with Redfin anticipating rates to fluctuate within the high-6 percent range. These diverging predictions reflect the complexity of the economic climate and the potential influence of various factors.
The upcoming presidential term presents a notable wildcard. Potential policy initiatives, such as proposed tariffs and tax cuts, could influence inflation and the national debt, potentially impacting the 10-year Treasury yield, a key factor in mortgage pricing. Economists at Redfin highlight concerns that these policies could increase inflation and the U.S. deficit, thereby pushing rates higher.
Conversely, economic slowdown or moderation in proposed policies could reverse this trend and potentially lower rates into the low-6% range. The specifics of the new administration's economic policies will ultimately play a key role in shaping mortgage rates throughout 2025.
