A new University College London (UCL) study suggests a potential link between oil extraction and a swarm of earthquakes that struck Surrey in 2018 and 2019. The study, based on computer simulations, proposes that oil extraction may have triggered the seismic activity.
Researchers, using a Bayesian model, examined the relationship between the amount of oil extracted and the number and magnitude of earthquakes. Their findings indicate a plausible correlation between the two, considering the specific rock types and extraction locations.
Importantly, the study notes that a significant period of seismic inactivity preceded the tremors. This lack of prior activity adds weight to the potential link, but the researchers stress the need for further investigation to confirm causality.
"Our findings suggest it's plausible that oil extraction triggered the earthquakes," stated Dr. Matthew Fox, lead author of the study. "However, we cannot rule out the possibility of coincidence, and further research is essential to definitively establish cause and effect."
The seismic activity, which reached a peak magnitude of 3.18, was felt widely in Surrey, including Newdigate, Dorking, Horley, Charlwood, as well as Crawley and Horsham in West Sussex. Around 1,600 people reported experiencing the tremors, with some reporting cracked walls and being shaken in their beds.
Despite local concerns, the British Geological Survey (BGS) previously found no direct link between drilling operations at the Horse Hill oil field and the quakes. However, environmental groups have long suspected the oil extraction as a potential contributing factor.
UK Oil & Gas, the company responsible for oil extraction at Horse Hill, maintains that the BGS previously concluded the tremors were naturally occurring, unrelated to the drilling operation. The company now focuses on renewable energy and hydrogen storage initiatives.
