Donald Trump's upcoming return to the White House is raising concerns among America's closest allies, particularly Canada and Mexico, as they brace for potential disruptive policies, including the threat of substantial tariffs. The former president's stated plans have prompted preparations for significant shifts in trade and border policies.
Tradition dictates a new president enters office with a robust 100-day action plan. With Republicans holding a Congressional majority, they view Trump's election as a mandate for his agenda. Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, noted the expectation of numerous executive orders on day one of Trump's term.
Trump has indicated that one of his initial actions will be a 25 percent tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico. This proposal aims to address what Trump perceives as inadequacies in border security and illicit activities.
Following this announcement, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with Trump in Florida, but failed to secure assurances of exemptions for Canada. Subsequently, Canada unveiled a $1.3 billion plan to enhance its border security, signaling readiness for potential challenges.
Experts are closely watching how the U.S. Congress and business community will respond to such tariffs. These executive orders could face legal challenges, and industries like the automobile sector may face significant negative impacts.
Congressional opposition to Trump, particularly if the tariffs adversely affect Americans' financial well-being, could provide Canada with a critical leverage point, noted Sands.
Beyond trade, Trump's campaign promises include significant domestic policy changes. These range from potential mass deportations to rolling back environmental regulations and increasing energy production, creating uncertainty regarding the pace and extent of these changes.
Past administrations have faced challenges in implementing sweeping changes rapidly. Despite Trump's initial campaign pledges in 2016, several major policy initiatives experienced delays and setbacks.
Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public policy, suggests a tempered expectation for the first 100 days, emphasizing that many presidential promises often take more time to materialize, despite initial political momentum.
Nevertheless, a more prepared Trump team, with a focus on rapid executive action, may be able to expedite significant change, making the early months of his administration pivotal.
Republicans in the Senate are already setting the stage for a swift legislative agenda, focused on energy, border security, and defense, which could begin within the first month.
The upcoming confirmation hearings for Trump's cabinet picks will be crucial in assessing Congressional alignment, according to Matthew Lebo, a political specialist at Western University. The level of resistance to certain nominees will indicate the independence of the legislative branch.
Ultimately, the degree to which legislators adhere to their convictions in the face of Trump's agenda will be a key factor in shaping the coming administration's trajectory.
