The House Select Committee on China, initially lauded for its bipartisan approach to countering Beijing, is now grappling with internal divisions, legislative hurdles, and potential conflicts with the incoming Trump administration, casting doubt on its future effectiveness.
Established two years ago, the committee gained a reputation for bipartisan collaboration, successfully advancing legislation to address China's growing influence. However, this momentum appears to be waning as partisan agendas increasingly shape the committee's priorities.
Adding to the complexity, the incoming Trump administration, while advocating a firm stance against China, holds differing views on key issues, such as Taiwan's defense and the future of TikTok. This misalignment could hinder the committee's ability to secure Republican support for its proposals.
Furthermore, the committee's initial novelty and unifying drive appear to have diminished, contributing to a perceived slowdown in its work. According to a committee staffer, "The sheen is gone and the work is slowing down," signaling a potential loss of momentum.
The committee’s core initiatives, including bolstering Taiwan’s defenses and opposing TikTok, now face significant challenges. President-elect Trump's statements diverge on these issues. He has suggested Taiwan needs to be more self-reliant and has expressed a desire to “save TikTok”, adding uncertainty to the committee’s efforts.
Compounding the challenges, the business ties of Trump advisor Elon Musk to China could potentially influence U.S. policy, according to some lawmakers and former officials, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest. These factors contribute to worries that Trump's policy approach could undermine the committee’s objectives.
Despite early bipartisan success, including legislative proposals on Taiwan and human rights, the committee has recently experienced a shift towards partisan prioritization. A package of legislation dubbed “China Week” was dominated by Republican-backed initiatives, leading to accusations of "cheap messaging over substantive policy."
Democrats on the committee express concern that Republicans' increased dominance after winning the White House, House and Senate, will reduce their willingness to compromise on China-related issues. This could further hinder the committee's ability to forge bipartisan consensus.
While committee Chair John Moolenaar downplays the risk of partisan division, some members acknowledge that the sense of urgency has diminished with the committee's renewal, which gives more time to set the agenda.
The committee’s landmark achievement, legislation to ban TikTok, also faces legal challenges and possible presidential intervention. A Supreme Court case could overturn the ban, while Trump's recent support for the platform could lead to delays.
The potential influence of Elon Musk on China policy adds another layer of uncertainty. Musk's business interests in China and differing views on Taiwan have raised concerns, creating doubts about the objectivity of any China policy he may influence, contrasting with Republican members who view his government efficiency role as a separate issue.
Looking ahead, Moolenaar aims to focus on key national security challenges, including revoking China's favored trade status and bolstering U.S.-backed global infrastructure investments. The success of these efforts, however, will depend on maintaining bipartisan cooperation during a period of heightened political division.
