A recent survey indicates that the Labour Party could lose a significant portion of its rural seats if a general election were held imminently. The poll suggests that recent policy decisions, particularly regarding inheritance tax exemptions for farms, have eroded support in rural constituencies.
The survey, conducted by More in Common, projects that Labour might retain only a quarter of the rural seats it won in the last election. This drastic reduction could see the party holding onto just 13 of its 49 rural seats, a dramatic shift from its recent gains. This development underscores a potential disconnect between Labour's policies and the needs of rural communities.
This potential loss is primarily attributed to the proposed changes to inheritance tax for farms, which could impose a 20% levy on assets exceeding £1 million. The National Farmers Union (NFU) has warned that Labour has underestimated the impact of these tax changes on family farms. The concerns are echoed by the Trades Union Congress (TUC) leader Paul Nowak, who fears it will severely affect small farmers.
Conversely, the survey shows Labour maintaining a stronger hold on urban seats, potentially retaining 59 percent of them. Despite this, overall the poll signals a broader decline in support for Labour since its recent electoral victory. This includes some of Labour's high-profile members potentially losing their seats as well.
Ed Hodgson, associate director at More in Common, noted that the survey highlights the loss of faith from rural voters who had previously supported Labour. He cited the inheritance tax changes and alterations to the Winter Fuel Allowance as resonating particularly poorly in rural areas. He suggested the party needs to demonstrate trustworthiness to stop the growing perception that it offers nothing new for voters.
The NFU emphasized that the potential impact of Labour’s policies extends beyond farms, affecting the entire rural community. This includes farm workers, related businesses, and the rural economy in general. The Countryside Alliance also expressed concerns, noting that Labour's policies have rapidly eroded goodwill in rural areas and called for engagement with rural groups.
